National Weather Service Twin Cities Area Forecast Discussion

Data Provided by the National Weather Service

000
FXUS63 KMPX 261042
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
542 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2019

.updated for 12z taf discussion below...

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2019

High pressure will retreat to the east today. Latest satellite
showing fair amount of high clouds over the western CWA this
morning. Expect this trend to continue much of the day with clouds
increase from the west into tonight. Low level WAA pattern ahead
of the incoming surface front should increase winds to the west
overnight and over much of the area into at least Wednesday
morning. We should see temperatures respond with sunshine expected
to the east anyway, with some lower 50s expected. Tonights lows
should drop off too far with southerly winds increasing along with
cloud cover, especially after midnight to the west and south. We
should see readings around 40 southwest and low/mid 30s to the
northeast.

Surface front moves into eastern MN by late afternoon. We are
expecting a decent thermal ridge bisecting the mn portion of the
cwa. Potential highs of 65 to 70 are possible, especially to the
southwest where we expect clouds to be thinnest into the
afternoon. Shower chances remain limited. Probably more of ACCAS
type activity to the northeast of the incoming front in the WAA
pattern. Forcing other than that is rather weak. Will keep any PoP
mention to the northeast of I-94. Southerly winds should gust
near 30 mph ahead of the front and gradually drop off as the front
approaches.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2019

Wednesday night through Friday night...On the backside of a
sweeping cold front, ahead of which produced a strong warm surge
across the WFO MPX coverage area on Wednesday, noticeable cold
air advection will bring temperatures back down closer to normal
values for the latter portion of the workweek. A secondary cold
front looks to pass through the region during the day on Friday.
At the same time, a potent low pressure system developing over the
TX/OK panhandle region will shift northeast into the Ohio Valley.
This system will come close enough and interact with the
secondary cold front to produce scattered rain showers over far
southern and eastern portions of the coverage area during the day
Friday. These showers will then mix with and change over to snow
showers Friday night for south-central and southeast MN into
western WI, but they will be of very little consequence due to the
sparse coverage, quick duration, and little moisture available.
Highs on Thursday will drop to the 40s and lower 50s followed by
highs only in the low-mid 40s on Friday.

Saturday through Monday...Benign weather will continue through the
weekend into early next week with high pressure back in control
and no significant disturbances in the upper levels. After
high temperatures dip below normal into the the 30s area-wide on
Saturday, a warming trend is expected going into early next week
with highs in the 40s Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 540 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2019

May see a brief period of MVFR fog at KAXN early, but mainly VFR
conditions through the day. Surface winds becoming more SE-S less
than 10 kts from west to east during the day and increasing winds
overnight with gusts to 20-25kts late into the SW. Will likely see
MVFR cigs develop over the northwest area this evening affecting
KAXN-KSTC overnight. Small chance of IFR cigs before 12z at KAXN.
Should maintain VFR conditions elsewhere. Cold front will sweep
east into western MN Wednesday morning perhaps affecting KAXN by
18z. Not expecting and -shra to affect the taf sites through 18z
Wed.

KMSP...No additional concerns expected.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Wed night...VFR. Winds NW 7 to 10kts.
Thu...VFR. Winds NW 5-10 kts.
Fri...VFR. Winds N 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...DWE

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion