National Weather Service Twin Cities Area Forecast Discussion

Data Provided by the National Weather Service

FXUS63 KMPX 172357 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
557 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 242 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2019

Relatively two weak systems will move across central/southern
Minnesota, and adjacent west central Wisconsin through Tuesday
morning. Forecast concerns deal with precipitation type Monday
morning in far west central/southwest Minnesota, and later Monday
evening in west central Wisconsin as boundary layer temperatures
begin to rise, as a surface trough moves overhead.

This evening will have cloudy skies as the departing system from
last night slowly moves to the east. I wouldn`t be surprised to see
cloudy skies throughout the night as we lose the lower clouds, but
increase the mid level clouds after midnight. Models support light
QPF amounts in the far southwest toward Monday morning. Even if a
few hundredths of an inch fell in the area, temperatures should hold
above freezing, especially once winds increase along the Buffalo
ridge after midnight. Thermal profiles suggest that any ice forming
clouds will hold back until most of the precipitation ends. So, most
of the precipitation will be in the form of drizzle or freezing
drizzle depending upon surface temperatures. By mid morning, any
precipitation will have ended.

The next system will quickly move in from the northwest as the fast
flow aloft continues. By Monday afternoon, light precipitation will
develop in central Minnesota with temperatures warm enough to
warrant light rain. By the evening, thermal profiles are warm enough
to hold onto all liquid, with the exception in west central
Wisconsin. On the western edge of the precipitation, and if
temperatures drop to near freezing, there could be some freezing
rain/freezing drizzle. However, the bulk of the steadier/heavier
precipitation should remain in west central Wisconsin where the
predominate precipitation type will be snow. There is a small window
of when temperatures fall to near freezing and we lose ice crystals
in the clouds along the Minnesota/Wisconsin border. So, some icing
is possible on the western edge before the precipitation ends during
the evening. This area would include the eastern edge of the Twin
Cities metro and the western edge of west central Wisconsin. Farther
to the east, thermal profiles would suggest all snow around
Ladysmith/Eau Claire. However, QPF amounts are still light enough
for snowfall amounts of 1-2 inches at the most.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 242 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2019

The only system of any concern in the later periods is the midweek
system. There remains uncertainty with its timing, location, and
intensity, but the deterministic and ensemble guidance has come
into much better agreement over the past day or two. The northern
stream wave still looks to remain positively tilted, and will
bring some snow to the northern portion of the are Wednesday. The
southern wave is a bit farther north than most of the guidance
previously indicated, and is starting to settle in closer to the
solution suggested by the GFS and GEFS yesterday. This would bring
decent precipitation to the southern and eastern portion of the
area Wednesday night, with the Twin Cities metro on the northwest
edge of that. Precipitation type looks to be rain where any
significant precipitation occurs. The northwest edge could see
some accumulating snow, but there is still too much disagreement
on the mesoscale details to have much confidence in those
specifics at this point. Needless to say, will need to keep an eye
on things over the next few days, but for now it looks like the
system will primarily be a rain maker for the region. However,
timing of any accumulating snow could create some headaches for
Thursday`s commute. Otherwise, near normal temperatures and mainly
dry weather will prevail through the remainder of the forecast


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 557 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2019

MVFR cigs will persist through the period. Winds will become
light and variable this evening before shifting south southeast
Monday morning, then shifting back to the west Monday afternoon.

KMSP...Looks like we`ll be near or below 1.7 kft through most of
the period, although cigs may rise a bit Monday.

Tue...MVFR cigs possible. Wind NW 5 kts.
Wed...Chc MVFR and -RASN late. Wind SE bcmg N 5-15 kts.
Thu...Chc MVFR/IFR and -SN early. Wind NW 10-20 kts.





NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion