National Weather Service Twin Cities Area Forecast Discussion

Data Provided by the National Weather Service

000
FXUS63 KMPX 240834
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
334 AM CDT Fri May 24 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Fri May 24 2019

Warm advective band of precip moving through this morning is split
into two primary parts.  One associated with the LLJ and the other
the main upper forcing with the shortwave tracking across the
Dakotas. The nose of the LLJ has made it into northern IA tonight,
but it will slide east into southern WI through the morning. There`s
pretty strong model consensus we`ll see around an inch of precip
down along I-90, but it falls off pretty quick north of there, with
a relative minima in precipitation amounts expects from southwest MN
through northwest WI as these areas fall between the better forcing
to the northwest and better moisture transport to the southeast.

Today, showers will continue to lift northeast with a warm front,
with clearing skies working in from west to east across southern MN
this afternoon. How quickly this clearing moves across the area will
largely determine how warm it gets. Out in the upper MN Valley, mid
70s should be no problem to achieve as the clearing arrives there
first. On the other end of the spectrum, areas around Ladysmith WI
will likely remain in the lower 60s under cloudy skies. In between,
highs could be a few degrees warm or colder than currently
forecast depending on cloud trends.

Tonight, we`ll have a dry feed of air to the south of a surface low
going across northern MN, which will clear out the skies. This trend
of dry air and clear skies will carry us into Saturday, which will
be our reward for enduring the last 10 days of cool, cloudy and
rainy weather. We should have no problem reaching the low to mid 70s
on Saturday, with an 80 not out of the question out by Eau Claire.
The one cooler area though will be out toward Alexandria as they`ll
be under the influence of an h85 thermal trough centered over
northwest MN, with h85 temps progged to be only around 4c, which
will hold highs out that direction back in the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Fri May 24 2019

Warm and pleasant weather continues during the day on Sunday over
the region begins to move off to the east. Highs will again warm
into the mid 70s for most locations under sunny skies, with cloud
cover increasing Sunday evening ahead of the next system. While
Saturday/Sunday look dry and pleasant, a more active pattern
develops for Monday and continues into mid-week.

Two shortwaves approach the area Monday night into Sunday, the stronger
wave associated with the northern stream jet and upper trough
over Hudson bay while a weaker impulses ejects ahead of a digging
trough over the western US. A broad trough of low pressure at the
surface across the central plains will deepen into a more
organized low pressure center Monday afternoon as the western
trough comes off of the Rockies. Isentropic ascent ahead of a warm
front to the east of this developing low along with plenty of
ascent aloft looks to generate a broad shield of precipitation
over the northern plains Sunday night, which is expected to move
into Minnesota/Wisconsin during the overnight hours and continue
through Monday. Memorial day looks like it could be quite soggy
with forecast rainfall amounts ranging from 1-2" across the area
and the heaviest amounts expected across southern Minnesota. The
greatest thunderstorm potential and possibly even severe threat
will depend on where the warm front and highest instability sets
up, this currently appears to be further south into Iowa but could
shift as we get closer to Monday.

The warm front will oscillate just south of the area as the low pressure
center approaches from the plains, with additional shower and
thunderstorm chances expected Tuesday into Wednesday. Again the
best thunderstorm chances and heavy rain potential will depend on
where the warm front sets up. PW values look a little lower
compared to Monday which should keep additional precipitation
amounts to around an inch. Precipitation chances should diminish
Wednesday afternoon/evening as the low moves east of the area.

Cooler conditions are expected for the end of the week into the
weekend as an anomalously deep trough sets up over the eastern
half of the US. Still disagreement in the models regarding the
depth of the upper level low and extent of the cold air, so will
keep temperatures close to the model consensus for now. Overall
the latter half of the week looks to be drier than the first, with
another shot at precipitation looking possible over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1107 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019

VFR conditions will give way to MVFR and possible IFR as a system
moves up from the south and overspreads the region with more rain.
The rain should be fairly light, so not anticipating much in he
way of reduced visibilities. Ceilings are trending a bit slow,
but they should lower as the boundary layer saturates as we head
towards morning. Eventually southerly winds will develop and that
should bring some drier air and lift the cloud bases for the
afternoon.

KMSP...
VFR with MVFR to follow early this morning, and should see
ceilings drop below 1700 ft. Could have some IFR ceilings, but at
this point cloud bases should remain above 700 ft. The heaviest
rain will miss KMSP to the south, so should have only minor
reductions in visibility.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sat...VFR. Wind W 10-15 kts.
Sun...VFR. Wind W 5 kts.
Mon...MVFR/SHRA with IFR/-TSRA possible. Wind SE 10G20 kts.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...ETA
AVIATION...JRB

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion