National Weather Service Twin Cities Area Forecast Discussion

Data Provided by the National Weather Service

000
FXUS63 KMPX 242321
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
621 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2022

Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2022

KEY MESSAGES:
- Gusty winds 30 to near 40 mph expected Sunday, with low humidity
  out west.

- Widespread frost possible early next week.

- A very dry forecast next week, possibly into the first week of
  October.

Today and Sunday...A low amplitude shortwave trough will swing down
across the region today, and cold air advection together with weak
ascent and daytime heating has led to clouds and a few rain showers
across the region. These showers should increase in coverage,
especially along and north of I-94 later this afternoon into the
early evening. They will shift east overnight and primarily be
focused across Wisconsin. Forecast soundings show a thin sliver of
CAPE, so could have a few lightning strikes, but overall expect
mainly fall-like weather with scattered showers and cool
temperatures.

On Sunday the low shifts eastward, and northwest winds develop across
the Upper Midwest ahead of an area approaching surface high
pressure. Skies should be mostly sunny, and this will allow the
boundary layer to mix pretty deep and tap into the breezy winds
aloft. Continued the trend of the previous forecast by going above
the blended guidance for winds/gusts. Forecast soundings show
potential for near 40kts during the afternoon. In addition to the
breezy winds, dry cool air will cause afternoon RH values to fall
into the 20s across western and southern Minnesota, with higher
values elsewhere.

Monday through Saturday...Low temperatures for both Monday night and
Tuesday night have decreased a bit, which increases confidence in
the potential for frost both nights. Otherwise no significant
changes to the forecast. The grand ensemble shows dry conditions
through October 01, with most locations having only a 5 to 15
percent chance of seeing over a half inch of rain between now and
October 01. In all likelihood, after today, most locations should
remain dry all of next week. There is a small chance for a system to
bring rain chances next weekend, but for now the official forecast is
dry due to uncertainty in the timing and placement of this system.
Otherwise temperatures will warm a bit, with highs back in the low
70s by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2022

Mostly drizzle now in Minnesota with some scattered rain showers in
Wisconsin. Generally VFR at most Minnesota terminals and expected to
remain VFR for this period. In Wisconsin with showers still present
MVFR is expected to continue into tonight. With showers present as
temperatures fall we could see some fog/mist overnight in Wisconsin
with IFR possible overnight. All sites should return to VFR during
the day tomorrow with increasing winds as the clear skies mix down
high winds with gusts up to around 30 knots.

KMSP... VFR expected through the period with the main impact being
the wind gusts up around 30 knots tomorrow. There could still be a
few showers in the vicinity, especially to the north through around
02Z, but the chances we not high enough to keep in the TAF.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Mon...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts.
Tue...VFR. Wind N 10-15 kts.
Wed...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...NDC

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion