National Weather Service Twin Cities Area Forecast Discussion

Data Provided by the National Weather Service

000
FXUS63 KMPX 261703
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1203 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2022

Updated to include 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2022

KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry through Monday with below normal temperatures today rising to
  near normal on Monday.

- Breezy northwest winds expected today with speeds 15-25mph gusting
  25-35mph.

- Scattered thunderstorms may develop along a cold front Tuesday
afternoon. A few of these storms could be strong to severe across
eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

Today through Monday - High pressure of western Canadian origin will
slide southeast along the Rockies today then east across the
Northern-Central Plains tonight and over the Mississippi River on
Monday. This will promote mostly clear skies today through Monday.
The only wrinkle is a large rotating upper level low over south-
central Canada which will gradually move east through Ontario
province tonight into tomorrow. A weak mid-level shortwave, which
shows up nicely on IR/WV imagery dropping southeast into eastern ND
and northwest MN early this morning, will swing through northern-
eastern MN and northern WI today, bringing added cloud cover with it
for during the day today followed by clearing tonight. Along with the
added cloud cover, this shortwave combined with the arriving high
pressure behind a departing cold front will make for a tightened
pressure gradient producing breezy winds today. Model soundings show
50kt winds at arnd 5 kft which will ably blend towards the surface
with a deep mixing profile. Thus, it is not unreasonable to have
northwest winds today with speeds 15-25mph and gusts 25-35mph from
late this morning through the afternoon hours. The pressure gradient
will slacken this evening through tonight while the nightly inversion
develops, allowing winds to quickly drop off this evening under clear
skies. As for temperatures, modest cold air advection behind the
departing cold front will force max temperatures into below-normal
levels today. Highs will only range from the upper 60s to mid 70s. A
cool overnight period tonight into Monday morning will have
temperatures into the 50s area-wide, followed by a return to near
normal temperatures on Monday with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

Tuesday and Tuesday night - mid-level troughing over southern Canada
and upper Midwest will support a weak surface low to develop and
slide across Hudson Bay. A long, trailing cold front will drop south
through the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes in Tuesday PM. A
combination of synoptic forcing and the LLJ enhancement could
trigger a few showers early Tuesday morning before diminishing by
early afternoon. There is the potential for a scattered thunderstorm
development along the frontal boundary Tuesday PM across the eastern
half of the MPX CWA. A few of these storms could be strong to severe
as pre-frontal low level moisture advection supports a narrow
corridor of modest instability (500-1000 J/Kg CAPE). Steep low level
lapse rates and strengthening deep layer bulk shear (35+ kts) should
be more than enough support a severe hail and damaging wind threat.
Furthermore, the SPC Day 3 SWO has included most of our Wisconsin
CWA in a Marginal risk. We`ll quickly dry out Tuesday night with
temperatures dropping into the 50s to lower 60s for Lows.

Wednesday through Saturday - High pressure will build in behind the
front, keeping precip chances low through the middle of the week.
The next chance for showers/storms will come in the late
Thursday/early Friday timeframe. A warm, relatively moist airmass
will be advected northward into the region Wednesday due to an area
of southerly return flow on the backside of aforementioned high
pressure. This is expected to bring highs into the upper 80s to low
90s for Wednesday and Thursday. However, dewpoints in the upper
50s/low 60s combined with nearly moist adiabatic lapse rates aloft
could hinder instability/severe thunderstorm threat despite strong
shear in place. Otherwise, temperatures are expected to cool back
down into the upper 70s and lower 80s with low precip chances
heading into the holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2022

High pressure centered over the Plains will move east through the
period, keeping VFR conditions in place. Tight pressure gradient
currently over the area will relax tonight into Monday as the
surface ridge moves through, so winds will drop off this evening and
remain light through the remainder of the period.

KMSP...No concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Monday night...MVFR possible late with a chance of SHRA/TSRA.
Southwest wind 5 kt or less increasing to 5 to 15 kt.
Tuesday...MVFR possible early with a chance of SHRA/TSRA. Southwest
wind 5 to 15 kt becoming northwest.
Tuesday night...VFR. Northwest wind around 10 kt becoming southeast 5
kt or less.
Wednesday...VFR. Southeast wind around 10 kt becoming south 10 to 20
kt.
Wednesday night...MVFR possible with a chance of SHRA/TSRA late.
Southwest wind 10 to 20 kt.
Thursday...MVFR possible with a chance of SHRA/TSRA. Southwest wind
10 to 20 kt.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WFO MPX
DISCUSSION...JPC/BPH
AVIATION...WFO MPX

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion