National Weather Service Twin Cities Area Forecast Discussion

Data Provided by the National Weather Service

000
FXUS63 KMPX 271728
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1128 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 307 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023

KEY MESSAGES:

- Today, morning snow showers, ending from west to east. Gusty
northwest winds will cause blowing/drifting snow and bring in
colder air this weekend.

- A much colder airmass will arrive tonight and persist through
the rest of the forecast period.

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...Early morning satellite and radar imagery
with surface obs showed widespread precip across the region just as
was expected from the passing clipper system. The warm air advection
and steady snow band was leading the way, with a more cellular
convective nature with the precipitation behind it in the warm
sector. This warm sector was quite impressive, with surface
temperatures rising overnight into the mid-30s across western
Minnesota. As a result, there was some mixed precipitation, but
generally it is a rain/snow combination. Forecast soundings show a
small window for some drizzle/freezing drizzle as the mid layers dry
out, but this is very short-lived as the entire sounding aside for a
thin layer of stratus becomes unsaturated as the cold front pushes
through. This cold front is also quite impressive, with gusts of 40
to 45 mph widespread across the Dakotas. Areas in western Minnesota
could see similar gusts, but they will only last a few hours, and
then decrease the rest of the day. Elsewhere expect a couple hours
of gusts near 40 mph, and then the similar trend of continued breezy
conditions, with gusts 30 to 35 mph by mid day, and decreasing this
evening. Overnight, winds will continue to lessen, but the cold air
advection will continue and by Saturday morning expect low
temperatures to be in the single digits for most locations.

Meanwhile, another shortwave trough emerging from the western plains
will act on this cold front and produce a band of relatively heavy
snow between the I-80 and I-90 corridors. This should produce one to
two inches along the MN/IA border, with lesser amounts to the
north, tapering off to perhaps a few flakes along the southern Metro
and Eau Claire WI. With surface temperatures remaining in the single
digits and deep saturation, this will certainly be an all snow
event.

SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...The forecast remains dry, with cold air
settling in across the region for pretty much all of next week. The
lone exception is the chance for a quick "warm up" Thursday and
Friday ahead another clipper system, but there is still some
uncertainty with the timing and placement of this system. Overall,
expect cold, but not record-setting cold for the upcoming week, with
more sun than we`ve had in some time as arctic air with the surface
high pressure remains the dominant feature. Winds will be fairly
light, which limit the wind chill potential to the -20 to -30 range
during the early morning hours.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1124 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023

There has been stubborn light snow occurring at many locations this
morning despite a lack of radar returns, due to the low level clouds
being situated within a decent DGZ, so just a tiny amount of lift is
enough to produce some brief snow showers. Winds begin blustery with
gusts to 25-30kts, but begin to fall back throughout the period with
gusts diminishing by around 06z for most areas. Mainly MVFR CIGS
should slowly lift to VFR as we lose low level saturation, with VFR
for most sites by end of period as we scatter out tomorrow. MKT has
the greatest chance to see -SN during the second half of the period
as models have trended slightly northwards, however all other
terminals should see flurries at the most. For now have kept all but
MKT dry by period`s end.

KMSP...VFR conditions return this afternoon with diminishing winds.
Decided to keep the end of the period dry despite a small chance for
flurries or -SN by around 10z. For now, the better forcing remains
far to the south.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.
MON...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for Chippewa-Douglas-
     Kandiyohi-Pope-Renville-Stevens-Swift.

WI...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...TDH

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion