National Weather Service Twin Cities Area Forecast Discussion

Data Provided by the National Weather Service

FXUS63 KMPX 100020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
720 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2020

Issued at 713 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2020

Updated to include 00z aviation discussion below.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2020

Scattered snow/graupel showers associated with the main upper low
over Ontario will gradually come to an end from west/northwest to
east/southeast this evening. As the surface pressure gradient
relaxes behind the departing cold front, surface winds will also
gradually diminish below 10 knots overnight and clouds will clear.
Given dewpoints in the upper teens and lower 20s, expect
temperatures to dip into the mid 20s in most locations. On Friday
the trough shifts east of the area and we see south/southwest
winds return. Therefore we should see a notably warmer day with
highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s, albeit still cooler than
normal for early April.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2020

In the long term forecast period we are still seeing differences
in how models phase northern and southern streams, but in general
both GFS and ECMWF models agree fairly well on a surface low
tracking from the Southern Plains to southern Lake Michigan over
the weekend. Have included 60-80 POPs from southern/east central
MN into west central WI from late Saturday through Sunday. Thermal
profiles point toward a rain/snow mix with this event, although
its too early to tell about potential accumulations. In the wake
of this system we look to see another surge of cold air, with
highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s, and lows in the 20s.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 713 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2020

VFR conditions expected throughout this TAF duration. Skies will
gradually clear out overnight followed by high clouds streaming in
from the west tomorrow. Ceilings are possible from time to time
but expected to be 15 kft or higher. NW breezy/gusty winds this
evening will diminish overnight to 5-10kt then gradually back to
SW through the day tomorrow. No additional precipitation expected.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

Sat...VFR. Variable wind less than 5 kt.
Sun...MVFR possible. Wind N 10-20 kt becoming NW.
Mon...VFR. Wind NW 10-20 kt.





NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion