National Weather Service Twin Cities Area Forecast Discussion

Data Provided by the National Weather Service

FXUS63 KMPX 122044

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
344 PM CDT Mon Apr 12 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Mon Apr 12 2021

Light rain continues across a large swath of the forecast area this
afternoon as a low continues to spin across northern Wisconsin.
Accumulations have been light with most locales only picking up a
few hundredths to less than a quarter inch overall through today.
We`ll see a brief break in the precip for the southern half of the
state this evening before another round pivots in for early Tuesday
morning. Additional QPF looks to be around only a few more hundredths
to just over a tenth of an inch by the time this system pulls away
overnight Tuesday.

Because temperatures are expected to fall into the 30s overnight,
light snow will likely be the predominant precip type through Tuesday
morning. Thanks to light precip rates and warm ground temps, little
snow accumulation is expected. The best chance for a short-lived
trace to an inch of snow exists north of St. Cloud into northwestern
Minnesota. Overall, Tuesday will not feel much like mid April with
these cold, wet, and overcast conditions continuing.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Mon Apr 12 2021

Very stagnant pattern is expected from the middle of this week
through the weekend, owing to a pair of slow-to-move upper level
lows and surface high pressure nudging south from central Canada.
One upper low over the Great Lakes and another over the western
CONUS will wobble over those regions Wednesday through Friday, then
both will simultaneously open up and shift ESE, both effectively
nullifying any potential impact for the Upper Midwest. While true
ridging is not expected, neither is any broad-scale troughing.
Similarly, at the surface, high pressure centered over central
Canada will slowly slide SSW, expanding over the Rockies over the
weekend as the upper low drifts away. It will keep its eastern
extent over Upper Midwest, preventing any systems from impacting the
area. As such, and as NBM has produced, a dry forecast is in place
from Wednesday through Sunday. The only negative is that clouds will
remain in place through Friday, with some sunshine not really
expected until the weekend. Temperatures will have very little day-
to-day variance due to this synoptic setup. While Wednesday will be
the coolest day with highs in the 40-50 degree range, the rest of
the period will have highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Lows will
remain in the 30s area-wide. These temperatures essentially line up
as right around climatological norms for mid-April.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Mon Apr 12 2021

MVFR conditions continue through the afternoon before a brief
improvement for most during the overnight hours. KRWF and KMKT will
see the best cigs/vis as most of the -SHRA activity stays to the
north. Still thinking that KAXN will see the worst of it with some
-SN into tomorrow morning. Winds remain somewhat gusty out of the
 west through the period.

KMSP...Expecting ceilings to hang out around FL018 before improving
overnight. Another round of -SHRA is possible late in the TAF period.

Tue...MVFR ceilings likely with -RA/-SN possible. Winds WNW 20G30
Wed...MVFR ceilings possible. Winds NW 5-10 kts.
Thu...MVFR ceilings possible. Winds N 5-10 kts.





NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion