000
FXUS63 KMPX 040520
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1120 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2023

.KEY MESSAGES...
- Monday system trending farther south and drier, with minimal
  impacts expected.

- Highs in the 50s looking increasingly likely along and south
  of I-94 in MN Wednesday and Thursday.

- More seasonable temperatures next weekend, but forecast is
  trending dry.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2023

Although we are located with a broad upper trough today, we`re in a
bit of no-man`s land, with shortwaves located to our north,
west, southwest, and east. This has resulted in little in the
way of a pressure gradient and weak low level flow, which has
resulted in a tricky forecast when it comes to the stratus. The
lack of flow means mixing from the sun is about all we have to
clear the clouds and it has helped expand the clearing that
started down by St. James and Fairmont. How this clearing
evolves through the night is a bit uncertain, but forecast
soundings from the RAP/HRRR would favor this clearing filling
back in through the night, with this stratus deck remaining in
place in some fashion through the day on Monday.

Also happening Monday is our next, and final shortwave in this
trough arrives. This wave right now is up over BC. The southward
shift with this wave mentioned in the previous discussion continues
here. In addition, forecast soundings show some serious
moisture/saturation issues across southern MN. Add into this the
best PVA and WAA going from central SoDak into northern IA and we
not only have questionable moisture, but questionable forcing
as well. All of this adds up a further reduction of PoPs, with
any mentionable PoP basically restricted to along/south of the
I-94 corridor. Temperatures during the late afternoon/early
evening where this precip potential exists are forecast to range
from 32-36, which will support a mix of light rain and light
snow and also result in negligible impacts.

Tuesday will be a cool day with a surface high moving through, but
Tuesday night, upper ridging starts moving in, with a very mild
Pacific airmass coming in out of the Rockies. It looks likely that
we`ll see highs in the 50s south of I-94 in MN both Wednesday and
Thursday, so again pushed highs up toward the NBM 90th percentile
both days.

For the end of the week, we will see winds switch around to the
northwest, which will push our highs back into the 30s next weekend.
Our next longwave trough also moves through next weekend, but models
are very much trending dry with this one, with another scenario of a
weak shortwave remaining to our north and the main flow and stronger
storm track remaining to our south. EPS mean h2 winds for the next 2
weeks show the dominate jet being the southern stream, coming out of
Mexico and going along the Gulf Coast and up the east coast. Until
this pattern changes, we`ll continue to see seasonable temperatures
with minimal chances for any significant precip. Basically, through
the middle of December, don`t expect any exciting weather up
here...

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1120 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2023

LIFR conditions have developed across parts of western MN,
which will likely build east overnight to fill in the clearing
between the current fog and the stratus along and east of the
Mississippi River. It will be slow to improve Monday, in fact
where dense fog does form it may remain into mid to late
morning.

KMSP...VFR should remain in place overnight. The fog across
western MN will approach, but likely only result in IFR cigs
from about 12Z onward.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR with MVFR possible early. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind S 15G25 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Monday for MNZ041-047-048-
     054>057-064-065-073-074-082-091.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MPG
AVIATION...Borghoff

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion